Who’s winning Telangana? Professor analyses

Prof. K Nageshwar, the renowned political commentator, has commented that the political trends in Telangana are changing by the hour before the Assembly polls on December 7.  “One is clueless.  Nobody can say which way the election will go,” he says.

“In Hyderabad and Khammam, for example, the political arithmetic is assumed to be favouring the Prajakutami.  However, even here, supporters of Jagan and Pawan Kalyan are most likely to vote for TRS and not the Grand Alliance,” he observes.

“In constituencies where there is antipathy for Chandrababu Naidu, it seems TRS has been able to turn the public mood in its favour.  There is also this feeling among many voters that one person (KCR) is being targeted by the rest of them (Mahakutami),” he notes.

“The influence of powerful rhetoric is felt more in the age of WhatsApp.  As soon as KCR or some other leader makes a comment, it’s there on social media for people to share views on.  It’s no longer the case that people will react to it only if Eenadu or Andhra Jyothi reports it,” he ponders.

What about the BJP’s role?  “It was previously assumed that BJP will split only the anti-BJP vote.  In the past few days, however, ground reports from various constituencies say that it’s amassing some TRS votes as well.  This is happening only because of a high degree of polarization between TRS and Congress,” the Professor answers.

How is the caste arithmetic playing out?  “It’s wrong to say that whole castes will vote for a party.  Dalit voters are angry with TRS for failing to fulfil the promises.  Rythu Bandha is not helping them either.  Dalits are landless and they are not getting anything from the scheme.  The KCR government has had nothing for Dalits.  However, compensating this loss is the OBC vote bloc, especially of the Yadavas.  The failure of TDP in wooing this segment is a major issue, besides the success of some government schemes,” he says.

“Muslim vote is divided between TRS and Congress. There is a perception that TRS is close to BJP,” he adds.

About local anti-incumbency, the Professor says, “TRS MLAs are weak but KCR is strongly favoured.  The appeal of even most Ministers is restricted to their constituencies.  If people vote for KCR, then TRS will win.  Otherwise, results may turn out to be otherwise.  That’s why Telangana polls this time are a psephological nightmare.”