US Presidential Poll: Trump and Biden Tied, Independent Kennedy Influences the Race

In a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, one year before the presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in a dead heat, each commanding 37% of the vote. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has 13% of the vote, potentially swaying Trump’s narrow lead. Progressive activist Cornel West, also considering an independent campaign, stands at 4% and is likely to boost Biden if he steps out.

These findings complicate the 2020 rematch scenario, especially with significant independent candidates. The poll also revealed that 26% of voters would seriously consider a bipartisan ticket offered by the centrist group No Labels, while another 23% might consider it. Biden voters (28%) are more open to this than Trump voters (18%). The prospect of independent bids disrupting the two-party system hasn’t been this significant since Ross Perot’s candidacy in 1992.

Without Kennedy or West in the mix, Trump leads Biden by 41% to 39%, with Kennedy at 14% and West at 7%. Trump has strengthened his hold on the Republican nomination, leading the GOP field with 58%, far ahead of Ron DeSantis at 12% and Nikki Haley at 11%. Enthusiasm favors Trump, with a mean score of 7.1, while Biden stands at 6.28. 50% of Republicans and other demographics rank themselves as highly enthusiastic Trump supporters. Biden’s most enthusiastic group is just 29% of those 65 and older.

Finally, the president’s job approval rating is 40% approve and 56% disapprove, with 41% of the disapprovers feeling strongly about it. A significant portion of Trump supporters (27%) said nothing could prevent them from voting for him, while 52% are determined unless it’s nearly impossible. A third could reconsider, mainly if a better candidate comes along.