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Box office analysis

Thursday, January 18, 2007 • Hindi Comments
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First weekend performance of latest release

One can't remember when was the last time a film was so heavily debated from the subject and the box office perspective. KANK comes closer but probably the magnitude was still not as high as the latest release 'Guru'.

The film was supposed to arrive in December along with 'Bhagam Bhag' but did well in avoiding the clash. A delay by 3 weeks only helped the cause as the publicity intensified over the period of time. By the time 12th January came close, it was clear that the film will take an opening but won't be thunderous at the box office in the first 3 days of the release. In fact this was the kind of film which relied more on word of mouth even though the film's treatment was expected to be classy.

In this sense, the film took an above average to good opening though. In fact the film that comes close in terms of sheer box office performance is 'Jaaneman' which took a similar opening and managed to stay afloat for around a week before 'Don' completely took over the proceedings.

Will the same happen for 'Guru'? Seems highly unlikely! Reason being that in case of 'Guru', the word of mouth has been extremely positively with people aiming to go for a repeat watch. Also, those who haven't seen it yet are booking their plans for the coming week which means that the drop in week 2 won't be too significant and would be below an industry standard of 50%.

Nevertheless, things would be clearer once the first week's collections are out since that would give a clear picture about the film's box office status. The way things are, it is only destined to go up!

The other release of the week, 'Anwar', got completely lost in the flood that came in the form of 'Guru' and even though latter may have not captured box office in entirety, it did manage to capture the imagination and debates of one and all which meant that the film got completely sidelined. Though the film has got poor to average reviews, Siddharth Koirala has been appreciated for his restrained act. This may just be a silver lining for the young actor in 'Anwar'.

Last week's movies

A combined first week total of 25 lakhs for 'Kudiyon Ka Hai Zamaana' and 'Game' says it all about their performance. Twin disasters at the box office, both the films are a complete loss for everyone involved.

From the past

The very first show of 'I See You' gave a clear indication of where the film was heading. As the week progressed, the writing was clear on the wall while the opening week's collections confirmed the worst for Arjun Rampal. With the second week turning out to be a mere formality at the box office, extremely poor collections in the tune of 15 lakhs meant that the film has been an all around reject. Standing at just above 90 lakhs with no chances of touching even a 1 crore mark, the film now qualifies as one of the Top-10 trade disasters of the year gone by.

'Bhagam Bhag' continued to be the top choice of moviegoers even in its 3rd week as it took a little more than standard 50% fall (~60%). Still, 5 crores more added to its total is not a bad sign at all for this film that has now collected in the access of 38 crores and is still counting. The film may just about manage to stretch itself to 45 crores in the long run.

Mumbai continues to be the strongest area for 'Bhagam Bhag' since 3rd week again brought with it 1 crore. Delhi was good too with near 50 lakhs while collections continued to trickle in from smaller centres too. A comfortable hit already, 'Bhagam Bhag' has only helped the track record of 2006 to bloom!

Even with 'Bhagam Bhag' and 'Dhoom 2' around, 'Kabul Express' managed to stay afloat, though maximum booty came in from Mumbai [30 lakhs]. With a decent 40% fall and around 80 lakhs coming in its 4th week, 'Kabul Express' now stands at 12 crores which makes it a good average earner.

'Baabul' is now breathing its last and making a silent exit from the country. With mere 25 lakhs added to the total, the film is a flop at 17.25 crores. Expect the film's DVDs/VCDs to arrive on stands in a fortnight's time.

'Dhoom 2' continues to do good business as it is still finding a loyal audience for itself. In its 7th week, the film did a business of close to 2 crores and brought the overall collections to 83.5 crores. All set to cross the 85 crore mark in the near future, any film that would challenge the box office performance of 'Dhoom 2' would now have to design itself as a 100 crores earner. Now that's the new box office parameter for one and all.

It's an extended honeymoon for Shahid Kapoor and Amrita Rao as their 'Vivah' has now become a case study for release strategy and market placement. Running at almost same number of cinemas as the top running film of last week, 'Bhagam Bhag', the film again took a marginal fall and added 1.5 crores to its total. With more than 26 crores in its kitty, it now seems feasible that the film would eventually manage to touch the 30 crore mark.

In the future

This Friday sees the release of two distinct films - 'Risk' and 'Mr. Hot Mr. Kool'. While the former has seen a decent round of promotion, especially in last 3 weeks, latter comes literally unannounced. 'Risk', which is seeing a selective release, may just about work with the lovers of 'masala' films, especially at single screens. Vinod Khanna is the USP of the film and if the film indeed has thrilling moments as promised, it may manage to do an average business at the box office. On the other hand, 'Mr. Hot Mr. Kool' may not even get a proper release, let alone being a candidate for making any box office ripples.

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