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Box office analysis

Thursday, September 20, 2007 • Tamil Comments
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First weekend performance of latest release

"20-20 Cricket sab movies ko kha gayi" [20-20 Cricket ate up the business of all films in the running]

This was the most frequent statement which I heard in the week gone by! Otherwise how else can one explain collections ranging from 5% to barely 30%-40% for most of the movies in the running, whether good or bad, old or new, English or Hindi? Even while writing this piece last week, I was sure about the fact that AGGAR won't open more than 30%-40%. Still, a revival was always on the cards if only the film was genuinely good and the word of mouth was strong.

But how can a film grow on word of mouth when the collections are barely 20% odd and 20-20 cricket is on full steam throughout the weekend? Result? After VICTORIA NO. 203, AGGAR seems all set to be yet another trade flop in a row for Ananth Mahadevan who ironically has come up with his most polished work till date. NANHE JAISALMER was even worse with collections lesser than those of AGGAR. Unexciting promotion, dated feel, unconventional plot, zero hype and general negativity around the product meant that this decent film (which warrants for a comfortable DVD watch) would be termed as a box office disaster in one week plot.

Indeed a sad weekend for Bollywood!

Last week's movies

At any other point of the year or released with some other's director's name attached to the project, the least DARLING would have managed is a coverage status. Alas, it came a week after RGV saw his biggest professional setback with AAG. Result? An out and out audience rejection to the film as they chose not to venture into the theaters at all. Mere 2 crores in collections from across the country more than proves that. Mumbai fared best with 60 lakhs and Delhi standing at 20 lakhs. The film has more or less been discontinued from the theaters in the second week and a fall of more than 80% in the second week is definitely on the cards.

DHAMAAL was always being seen as a safe film. In the end, this is the best status it would end up earning eventually since a below average opening followed by a crucial 20-20 Cricket match for India translates into a 13.5 crores opening for the movie. Average at best, though it deserved a far better fare, DHAMAAL has turned out to be the GOLMAAL of 2007. This Ajay Devgan starrer from last year had also opened slow though it had consolidated over the period of time to be termed as a semi-hit.

DHAMAAL is not looking at a 30 crore total though if it manages to hold on well over the coming 3-4 weeks before BHOOL BHULAIYAA strikes, it could at least attain a semi-hit box office status. In it's first week, DHAMAAL was best in Mumbai at over 2.5 crores with Delhi crossing the 1.25 crores mark. Ahmedabad was good at 80 lakhs though.

From the past

After dozens of gigabytes being exhausted on RAM GOPAL VARMA KI AAG, it doesn't seem to be news anymore when the film finds it's way out of theaters in two weeks flat in spite of releasing at close to 600 cinemas. With greater than 95% fall in the second week (something which is possibly unparalleled in the history of Hindi cinema), the film managed to net barely 35 lakhs more and is all but folded at 8 crores. The film is clearly the mother of all box office disasters and it would require a real bad film to overtake it's fate!

VICTORIA NO. 203 hardly added 5 lakhs to it's last week's total and has folded up at 1 crore. A certified box office disaster. Ditto for DHOKHA which is the biggest box office failure in the decade gone by for the Bhatts. The film has not even managed to reach anywhere near 1 crore and is closing at 70 lakhs. One wonders where is the movie being shown after all the news around it being made tax free!

It should be a week's time before Akshay Kumar, Fardeen Khan, Riteish Deshmukh and Vidya Balan can start celebrating their 50 crores super hit! With 5.5 crores more coming in the 4th week, HEYY BABYY may have taken a 60% fall but has still netted 47.5 crores. Though Mumbai saw a substantial fall from 2.75 crores to 80 lakhs and Delhi too earning only 70 lakhs compared to 1.75 crores last week, HEYY BABYY is all in all a super-success and expected to rock further on the DVDs.

Comparatively CHAK DE INDIA has seen better box office outcome with the lowest fall in collections. With a mere 40% fall, the film has earned another 4.5 crores and has now crossed the 55 crores mark. Exciting times are expected ahead to ascertain if the 60 crores milestone would be eventually met by CHAK DE INDIA in the long run! Mumbai continues to be excellent with 90 lakhs coming in while Delhi is superb as well with 70 lakhs.

In the future

Filmi-mela begins with horde of releases every weekend. DHOL, LOINS OF PUNJAB PRESENTS, MANORAMA SIX FEET UNDER and CHHODON NAA YAAR are the four films in the running this time around. Out of the four, while DHOL is expected to fetch a barely decent start (40%-50%) with potential to grow further if assisted by good word of mouth, LOINS OF PUNJAB PRESENTS may just do a BHEJA FRY in the metros.

While CHHODON NAA YAAR is a non-starter with a patchy release not helping it's case either, one feels pity for Abhay Deol starrer MANORAMA SIX FEET UNDER to be releasing in the fashion it is. With industry insiders insisting a path-breaking cinema here, one wonders why the film arrives sans any active promotion? Only word of mouth can save this film from a crash since even a decent opening seems like a distant dream for the moment.

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